同类多产品并存扩散是一种很普遍的市场现象，如智能手机、平板电脑、新能源汽车等。因此，掌握多产品扩散规律不仅对于企业制定研发计划和营销策略十分重要，对于消费者选购产品也很有参考价值。对多产品扩散模型的研究有宏观和微观两种建模方法。基于宏观建模方法的多产品扩散模型已经有很多，但是这种模型存在一个很大的弊端，就是无法从微观层面解释宏观扩散结果，这严重限制了宏观模型的应用。另外，目前基于微观建模方法的多产品扩散模型还非常少，品牌竞争与代际替代并存的多产品扩散模型还未出现，而且仅有的少数模型均未经真实销售数据验证，只适用于理论分析，应用价值有限。基于上述情况，笔者用微观建模与仿真方法系统研究了3种情形下的多产品扩散问题。

第1章 绪论··········································································································1 1.1 研究背景及意义······················································································1 1.2 研究进展·································································································3 1.2.1 多产品扩散模型··········································································4 1.2.2 线上口碑对扩散过程的影响·······················································6 1.2.3 社交网络对扩散过程的影���·······················································8 1.2.4 研究进展述评··············································································9 1.3 研究内容·······························································································10 1.3.1 消费者决策分析········································································10 1.3.2 多代产品扩散仿真····································································11 1.3.3 多品牌产品扩散仿真································································12 1.3.4 多品牌多代产品扩散仿真·························································12 1.4 研究思路及方法····················································································12 1.4.1 消费者决策分析········································································12 1.4.2 多代产品扩散仿真····································································13 1.4.3 多品牌产品扩散仿真································································13 1.4.4 多品牌多代产品扩散仿真·························································14 1.5 主要创新·······························································································14 1.6 本章小结·······························································································15 第2 章 相关理论与技术·····················································································16 2.1 效用理论·······························································································16 2.1.1 概述···························································································16 2.1.2 效用函数的由来········································································16 2.1.3 消费者偏好················································································17 2.1.4 效用函数的类型········································································18 2.1.5 边际效用····················································································19 2.1.6 期望效用····················································································20 2.1.7 间接效用····················································································21 2.1.8 预算约束····················································································21 2.2 模糊集理论····························································································22 2.2.1 概述···························································································22 2.2.2 概念定义····················································································23 2.2.3 模糊逻辑····················································································25 2.3 网络科学·······························································································28 2.3.1 概述···························································································28 2.3.2 网络属性····················································································29 2.3.3 网络模型····················································································32 2.4 ABMS理论与技术················································································35 2.4.1 什么是Agent ·············································································35 2.4.2 基于Agent的模型····································································36 2.4.3 Repast Symphony建模仿真平台···············································38 2.4.4 Mesa建模仿真框架···································································41 2.5 本章小结·······························································································44 第3章 消费者决策分析··················································3